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Origin Ontology of Future Scenario's Idea

 

Abstract. Environmental changes coupled with the impact on globalization leading to increasing complexity in many developing strategies, especially on the foresight and futures studies. These trends pose a fundamental question, what is the chalenges of future’s complexity? It seems before understanding the origin of Future Scenario's idea and laws governing the Future Time, we've gone into the application of Scenarios to build better stories about future.

Scenarios to build better stories about future. In this paper we deeply investigated following issues in order to demonstrate the effects of the origin of idea's ontology on Future Scenarios:

    1. Idea ontology;
    2. The origin of creative thinking;
    3. Idea nurturing in organizations;
    4. Shaping the future time;
    5. Scenario planning;
    6. Ideas social network (global brain).

This paper is a fundamental research type that makes theory for an applied science. In fact, we seek to bridge an ontology base with an applied knowledge. According to qualitative approach this study because of its data references to valid resources is valid and due to expert's continuous supervisions is reliable.

Conceptual Model that have been emerged from this investigation, shows how we can improve scenario planning ability and what actually should be done to have good scenarios.

Keywords: Future Scenarios; Idea's Origin; Mind's Cognitive map; Future Time Structure;

 

Introduction

Environmental changes coupled with the impact on globalization leading to increasing complexity in many developing strategic plans, especially on the new generation of an interdisciplinary thinking called foresight and futures studies. These trends pose a fundamental question, what is the problem of this complexity? It seems before understanding the origin of the creative’s ideas of future scenarios and laws governing the future time, we've gone into the application of Scenarios to build better stories for future.

Life is not going to be easy in the 21st century for people who insist on black-and-white descriptions of reality (Chermack T. J., 2011).

Various future oriented practices and techniques have been developed to support strategic planning. Scenario planning, in particular, has been started using more than 40 years ago and rapidly emerged as one of the most popular and effective foresight technique (Vecchiato and Favato, 2015) to more clearly appreciate a world clouded by information overload, rapid change, irreconcilable certitudes and/or persistent uncertainty (Oxford Scenarios Programme, 2015).

Popper (2008) by hundreds of foresight projects shows that the three qualitative methods include; Literature Review, Expert panel and Scenarios are dominant in the methods of Futures Studies. These represents mix of Normative and Exploratory approaches in this field of studies. Futures Studies qualitative approach, largely based on expert’s intuition through Delphi or the Scenario writing methods (Mahdeyan, 2017). Human's epistemological basis shows natural scenario building ability to tell stories about human life in the future (Rhisiart, Scenario Building, 2006) and a cognitive link to time oriented structure of brain for understanding. Our decisions about the future depend on how we think the world works. Scenarios are based on intuition, but crafted as analytical structures. We use Scenario planning artful via learning process to overcome barriers of creative thinking (Chermack T. J., 2011) by changing mental model for decision making. Future Scenarios are just different ideas about future. We use scenarios to guide us in exploring the future, widening perspectives (Bentham, 2008), confronting assumptions, reshaping mental maps, recognizing degrees of uncertainty for avoiding Uncertainty and Ambiguity, addressing dilemmas and conflicts, etc.

The concept of an innovation hub as a powerful place for the creation of innovations through the interaction of science, education and the economy in combination with matching living and cultural life conditions forms the starting point for a comprehensive scenario study (Mietzner, 2015). Scenario generation is typically an interdisciplinary, multidisciplinary, or even transdisciplinary activity, drawing on diverse bodies of knowledge. This is certainly true of scenarios, which involve integrating diverse forms of information relating to complex systems comprising multiple actors (McDowall and Hughes, 2015).

Hence how we can improve the ability of Scenario planning in order to make enough potential in facing alternative future? For this regard, we deeply investigated following issues in order to demonstrate the fundamental effects of the origin of idea's ontology on Future Scenarios:

    1. Idea ontology;
    2. The origin of creative thinking;
    3. Idea nurturing in organizations;
    4. Shaping the future time;
    5. Scenario planning;
    6. Ideas social network (global brain).

Methodology

This paper is a fundamental research type that makes theory for an applied science. Its analysis approach has been based on intuition-rational philosophy to explore new area of an interdisciplinary science by descriptive manner. According to qualitative approach this study because of its data references to valid resources will be valid and due to experts continuous supervisions will be reliable.

According to Nonaka KM spiral model (Keenan, 2007, p. 20) (Eerola & Jørgensen, 2002, p. 12) this research is going to extract tacit knowledge from literatures and expert's intuition then combine as explicit knowledge in order to socialize it to benefit all players especially policy makers and business mans (Mahdeyan, 2012).

This research aims to study the impact of Idea philosophical foundation on Future Scenarios, in other words, we seek to bridge an ontology base with an applied knowledge. The paper also benefits by complementing underrepresented fields of scientific curriculum.

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About the Author

 

Ahmad Mahdeyan, PhD in Management of Futures Studies

Dr Ahmad holds a PhD in Management of Futures Studies (FS), which is known as Strategic Foresight and Scenarios. FS is an interdisciplinary new generation of scientific attitude toward future that includes a chain of physical and biological issues along with social and humanities subjects. And its most focus is on technology's future and social changes in order to make desirable and sustainable future. Dr Ahmad has over ten years' experience in teaching business, management, economy and marketing and also nearly two decades of work experience in public policy as a headquarter expert. During these years he mentored and coached people to establish their own business and work with different cultures. In recent years, he discovered the various aspects of social sciences in politics and history of global issues by studying the future scenarios of the global mega-trends. These scientific studies, have been done based on his fundamental finding include designing the future time formation model as PhD dissertation and discovering the conceptual model of the origin of the idea of future scenarios etc. According to his experiences, training is successful only when it leads to the behavioral changes. Our decisions about the future depend on how we think the world works. If we see the future we want then we can make it now. Opportunities are fleeting like clouds, so we should discover and seize the good ones. The idea of yesterday is the vision of today and the reality of tomorrow. So learn from the past, live for the present, and work for the future.

 

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